Coffee Certification Reforms Could Raise Kenya’s Coffee Export Earnings to Sh116 Billion by 2030, Study Finds

Dr Martin Ambrose Mutua tastes coffee during a grading session as part of research on strengthening coffee certification systems to improve Kenya’s production and export earnings.

Certification Reforms Could Raise Kenya’s Coffee Export Earnings to mmNAIROBI, July 29 (KNA) – Kenya could raise its annual coffee export earnings to approximately Sh116 billion by 2030 by strengthening coffee certification systems through improved quality management, farmer training, sustainability compliance and better market access, according to a new study by Kenyatta University.

The findings support the government’s efforts to revitalise the coffee subsector under the National Coffee Value Chain Development Strategy, which seeks to increase production, improve farmers’ incomes and enhance Kenya’s competitiveness in the global coffee market.

The study indicates that stronger certification systems could also create thousands of jobs across the coffee value chain while promoting sustainable farming practices.

Speaking on the findings of the research, Dr Martin Ambrose Mutua, a doctorate holder in Project Management at Kenyatta University, said quality management remains the most important factor in determining the success of certified coffee projects because it enables farmers to consistently meet international standards and secure premium export markets.

“Farmers applying structured quality systems, including compliance checks, process standardisation and buyer feedback integration reported higher cupping scores, reduced production wastage and premium market access. Quality is the entry ticket to international buyers. Without it, certifications are just papers,” said Dr Mutua.

The research analysed data from 300 respondents involved in three coffee certification projects in Kiambu County and established that quality management, sustainability compliance, farmer training and effective market platforms significantly improve certification outcomes and project implementation.

According to the study, Kenya earned Sh38.4 billion from coffee exports in 2024, representing a 12 per cent increase from the previous year. Despite the growth, coffee production remains far below the levels recorded in the early 1980s, highlighting the need for reforms to restore the sector’s productivity.

The study found that farmers who complied with sustainability standards, including soil conservation, water management and biodiversity protection, recorded more stable yields and stronger certification performance.

It also established that structured farmer training reduced production errors, improved compliance with certification requirements and strengthened project implementation.

Dr Mutua said investment in digital market platforms is equally important because certification alone cannot guarantee better earnings without reliable market access and stronger buyer linkages.

“Price premiums, certification funding and buyer linkages amplify the returns of certification projects. Without functional digital market infrastructure, certified farmers cannot convert compliance into income,” he said.

The research cites Baragwi Cooperative as an example of the benefits of certification, noting that after adopting Rainforest Alliance certification and farmer training, the cooperative increased production from 5,000 tonnes to 15,000 tonnes while expanding its membership from 11,000 to 25,000 farmers.

Kenya currently produces about 50,000 tonnes of green coffee annually, while the government’s National Coffee Value Chain Development Strategy targets production of up to 200,000 tonnes of clean coffee by 2030.

The study says stronger certification systems could provide the practical framework needed to achieve that goal.Dr Mutua projected that expanding certified coffee production would significantly increase foreign exchange earnings while strengthening Kenya’s position in global coffee markets.

“Scaling to 150,000 tonnes of certified green coffee at current premium prices projects foreign exchange earnings of approximately Sh116 billion by 2030. Coffee could rise from the current fifth position in foreign exchange earnings to directly challenge horticulture and tea,” he said.

The study further projects that expanding certified coffee production could sustain more than three million livelihoods and create over 500,000 new entry-level jobs in coffee processing, logistics, cooperative management and certification compliance.

Among its recommendations, the research calls for institutionalising quality management across all certification programmes, making farmer training a mandatory component of certification, strengthening sustainability regulations, investing in digital coffee market infrastructure and enhancing collaboration between cooperatives, certification bodies and other stakeholders.

It also proposes establishing a national quality monitoring and evaluation framework to improve Kenya’s competitiveness in international coffee markets.